Iran's initial agreement to back down in the face of international pressure and ship its nuclear fuel outside the country shows that the regime feels vulnerable after waves of protests and other setbacks to its regional influence.
Iran scholars and proliferation specialists say the government in Tehran is trying to shore up its legitimacy in the aftermath of its disputed June presidential election and stave off more economic sanctions. Iran is also feeling insecure because of bombings in its southeast, setbacks to allies in Lebanon and Gaza, and defections abroad, including that of a presidential adviser's daughter.
"They're feeling under a lot of pressure," said Greg Thielmann, a senior fellow at the Arms Control Association.
Iran did get something that it wanted, however. Under the draft agreement, the U.S. will upgrade a research reactor in Tehran that was provided to the Shah in the 1960s, two Iranian officials said. That would be the first U.S. civilian nuclear cooperation with Iran since its 1979 revolution.
While the Iranian government has succeeded in crushing mass demonstrations against the fraud-tainted re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, there are still almost daily protests on Iranian university campuses, and Mr. Ahmadinejad's election opponents - Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi - have yet to concede.
More anti-government demonstrations are expected on Nov. 4, the 30th anniversary of the 1979 Iranian seizure of U.S. Embassy hostages.
Oil prices are half what they were at their peak a year ago, and the government has been forced to cut subsidies for gasoline and other consumer staples. In Lebanon, Hezbollah came in second to a pro-Western alliance in parliamentary elections in early June, while Hamas is still recovering from a punishing Israeli offensive in Gaza. Meanwhile, Syria, a key Iranian partner for the past three decades, is seeking to improve relations with the United States.
A bombing Sunday in Iran's restive southeastern province of Baluchistan killed several members of the elite Revolutionary Guards and highlighted opposition to the regime among the Sunni Muslim Baluch ethnic minority.
There have also been several reported defections of Iranian nuclear scientists to the West. This month, Narges Kalhor - the filmmaker daughter of a top aide to Mr. Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Kalhor - sought asylum in Canada, her father told the Etemad newspaper.
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